September 13, 2021 - 7 min read
This article summarizes the sales volume and distribution of Curio Card #1, The Apple. In it, you will find sales volume data for August and September and my thoughts on it leading up to the Christie's auction.
Curio Cards, the first NFT art on Ethereum are headed to Christie’s Auction house on October 1st. There is a lot of excitement within the community for validation of the project and what that validation may bring for the prices of assets in the collection.
Over the past few months, I have been tracking sales volume and distribution of the Curio Card #1, the Apple, which was the first NFT art sold on Ethereum in May 2017. Some believe this designation carries a premium (which is reflected in Apple’s prices) and that is why I have chosen to track the asset sales by hand (there are no tools to do it at scale for each Curio Card in the set at the moment).
Disclosure: I own 1 Curio Card Apple and purchased it for less than 1 ETH. This is not financial advice and I encourage you to do your own research. Please do not spend money you can’t afford to lose. The NFT market moves quickly (for example, Apple peaked at over 20 ETH before dropping as low as 6.8 ETH). I do believe Curio Cards are a blue-chip asset, but I do not have a crystal ball.
The meaning of the art: You can read more about the meaning of each card in the project here
The detailed history of Curio Cards: You can read about the detailed history of Curio Cards, the founders, the artists, and the art, here
Supply Cheat Sheet for Curio Cards: Curio Cards are semi-fungible meaning there are multiple copies of the same asset. You can click here for more information on their supply.
Official Opensea Curio Cards Collection: Shop for Curio Cards here
Discord Group: You can join the Discord group here
The Curio Card Apple has a total supply of 1,809 cards and 732 are currently listed on Opensea.io as active. It is unknown whether or not all 1,809 cards will become active as some are in dead wallets (defined as inactivity for 1,000+ days) but I personally do not think it will matter in the long run for the value of this card.
For the purpose of this analysis, I am using 732 as the total trading supply to evaluate the distribution of the Apple card.
There are currently 365 unique holders of Apples, which is up from 264 on August 11th.
Let’s begin with some key data from August and September:
328 Curio Card Apples sold in August, a 95% increase in volume since July
44.81% of the active supply of Apples sold in August
The average price per Apple in August was 7.28 ETH ($24,752) a 544% increase since July
43 Curio Card Apples sold in September (as of the 13th of the month at 2 pm EST)
5.87% of the active supply of Apples have sold in September
The average price per Apple in September so far is 8.22 ETH ($27,984) a 12.9% increase since August
There has been an average of 3 Apple sales per day in September, which would project to 99 Apple sales in the month of September, a much lower volume than August, but at a higher average cost per Apple
The number of unique Apple owners has increased by 101 owners in the past month and this distribution will be a key metric to watch leading up to and after the Christie’s Auction.
Each Apple owner has an average of 2 Apples, which means they might be more likely to sell 1 for profit to cover expenses and hold 1 for the longer term.
As the distribution gets better (fewer owners with multiple copies of the card) supply will likely become more limited.
It’s much harder to sell something you think will be valuable in the long-term if you only have 1 copy of it.
Since the beginning of August, I’ve identified 4 price peaks during pumps of the Curio Card Apple. Each time the Apple price has peaked, it’s reached a new high price, followed by a retraction in price. Each low of the retraction has been higher than the last.
Let’s look at the four peak prices I’ve identified:
The Apple card peaked at 2 ETH on 8/2, 4.75 ETH on 8/3, 11.75 ETH on 8/6, and 22.5 ETH on 8/25. Each peak is, on average, 55% higher than the previous peak.
Now, let’s look at the lowest sales of Curio Card Apple following the peak prices:
Because of the volume of sales, 8/3 saw a low, a peak price, and another low. Removing this outlier, the average price drop is 50.4% after a peak. However, you’ll notice that the new lows are higher each time.
From 8/8 to 9/2, the low price following a peak increased by 83.7%. The current low of 6.8 ETH is higher than the last two peak prices.
While this data screams volatility, we are pairing it with the distribution analysis above. 280 Apples were sold from August 4th — August 31st and on August 11th, there were 264 owners compared to 365 owners today.
73% of the supply has sold, but that still leaves 27% of the supply that may be owned by a smaller number of holders. If Apples become more distributed, we’d likely see fewer large swings.
It will be interesting to see if the card peaks again, and if the new peak price follows the trend and increases by 55%, followed by a retraction of about 50%.
The Curio Cards Christie's auction on October 1st is exciting, but many are wondering what will happen to prices leading up to and after the auction.
I've written before that we are likely to see price decreases during and after the auction because many are holding to sell for that event. It's counterintuitive, but it's the same pattern that shows up in other collectibles markets, like winning a professional sports championship and rookie cards going down in value after that happens. You can read more about that analysis here.
However, I think that as Curio Cards become more distributed, with fewer people holding multiple copies of cards, and as the market gets smarter (I'm already seeing people more resistant to FOMO on unestablished projects), I believe the market and prices for Curio will steadily rise in the months following the Christie's auction.
There will be new people getting into the NFT space who will be looking for established projects and Curio Cards has both historical significance and the recognition of being auctioned at a globally recognized fine art auction house.
This does not mean you should go buy Curio Cards. You still need to think for yourself. You may be able to buy now during a quiet period, sell during an auction pump and buy back after that auction.
Eventually, though, if the market continues to recognize the historical significance of the project, the distribution will be spread out enough that owners may be more resistant to selling.
I watched the Apple card hit 22.5 ETH and didn't sell because I only have 1 and believe in the project. I could very well be wrong, but the more people who end up with 1 card versus multiples, the less likely they will be to sell.
Keep an eye out for the Christie's Auction on October 1st and what happens to the prices of Curio Cards during and afterwards. Study the behaviors and trends so you can apply them to your own NFT analysis and purchasing efforts.
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