Curio Card Apple Sales Volume and Supply Distribution Update — 8/30/2021 

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After it was announced that Curio Cards would be headed to Christie’s Auction House on October 1st in New York City, the sales volume of Curio Cards exploded. 

However, as anticipated, we saw a retraction in prices after the initial pump. 

I have been tracking the sales of the first-ever digital art sold on Ethereum, the Curio Card Apple, as a way to provide some context and information about why these price drops are occurring, and if we will see a rebound in the future. 

What’s unique about Curio Cards is that there are multiple copies of each piece of art in the project. 30 cards are part of the set, but there is a different supply for each one. 

Because there are card owners who have multiple copies of cards, we’ve seen prices rise quickly, stagnate, and a flood of supply undercuts the lowest price listed. 

I’ve written about why this is happening in previous articles, but the gist is that in March, April, May, and June, many Curio cards were priced under .25 ETH. 

As the market has risen, owners with multiple copies of a card could sell and earn back their entire investment (and likely more) by selling a few short-term and keeping other cards long-term. 

I chose to evaluate the Apple because (1) It’s the first art on Ethereum and (2) I track all the data by hand, so I picked just 1 card to track. 

Curio Card Apple Price History 

From March through July, the Curio Card Apple sold 251 times at an average price of .43 ETH. 

This doesn’t factor in the number of cards minted in 2017 for a significantly lower price (.025 ETH or less than $10). 

There are currently 698 Curio Card Apples active on Opensea.io in the updated Curio Card wrapper (more on why that is here) with likely more to come from sellers who paid significantly less than what they are worth now. 

As of August 30th, we’re up to 342 Curio Card Apple owners, an increase from 264 owners on August 11th (78 new owners in total). 

That breaks out to 2.04 Apples per owner. 

As supply gets more distributed and there are fewer holders with many multiples of the Apple card, I believe we will see a significant increase in the card's price. Remember, this is a guess. No one knows what will happen in the future and you shouldn’t buy in because I think this. It’s just context for why I am tracking this so closely and how you should think about supply and demand dynamics for NFTs. 

August is a Record Month for the Curio Card Apple

320 Curio Card Apples have sold in the past 30 days at an average price of 7.2 ETH, reaching as high as 22.5 ETH ($72,000), but has since come down to ~12 ETH. 

Since March, 81.92% of the active supply of Apples has sold. This is likely why we are seeing higher highs and a higher floor price after a pump dies down. 

However, going forward, I am going to assume 1,809 Apples in the active supply because this is the highest total supply of that card. Many are worried about what will happen if these are wrapped and listed, so it’s better to evaluate the turnover of supply using this number going forward: 

Source: Startwithnfts.com 

In the past 30 days, 17.69% of the total possible supply of the Curio Card Apple has sold at an average price of 7.2 ETH. 

This represents 45.91% of the total active supply on OpenSea. 

How Long Will it Take for 100% of Total Curio Card Apple Supply to Distribute?

Source: Startwithnfts.com 

In this table, I project the average 30-day sales volume at 320 based on August data. This number could go higher or lower in the coming months. Given that 168 Apples sold in July, I feel confident using this number because we will see fluctuations, but the sales volume for this card is trending upward. Curio Cards will also likely see more recognition leading up to the Christie’s Auction sale, which could have an impact on sale volume for the Apple card. 

At the current pace, if the total supply of Apples were active right now, it would take 5 months for the supply to turn over to new owners. 

This is significant because when people pay 7 ETH, 10 ETH, 12 ETH, and up to 22.5 ETH for this card and only own 1 of them, they’re less likely to sell in a downturn or undercut another seller. 

I’ve seen 3 pumps of Curio Cards happen and each time, the project reaches newer highs and settles at a higher floor — but please remember, do not spend more than you can afford to lose. 

The Apple card is no longer within reach for many people and requires serious thought before you make a purchase. As more and more people start buying NFTs, I do think the Curio Card Apple will be recognized for its historical significance as it was the first digital art sold on Ethereum. The record of the transaction can be found here.