July 18, 2022 - 8 min read
This article breaks down and analyzes the VeeFriends Series 2 Compete and Collect trading card game and my perspective on buying, selling or holding the product.
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Back in December, I wrote my thoughts on whether people should buy, sell or hold Gary Vaynerchuk’s VeeFriends UNO sets based on historical data from new sports card sets. And then in March, I wrote a buy/sell/hold for the zerocool VeeFriends premium trading card set.
It’s safe to say that A LOT has changed since then, like the release of the VeeFriends Series 2 Compete and Collect trading card sets (given to the Series 2 NFT holders for FREE).
But, we’ve also seen some changes like a big slow down in the market and some calls for a recession. That slowed traditional sports cards and NFTs.
Despite this, there’s been a lot of buying and selling of VeeFriends trading cards, which means some arbitrage opportunity and a call for an updated buy/sell/hold perspective on the VeeFriends Series 2 compete and collect trading cards, which are now available on eBay.
Before I dive in, please remember that this is not financial advice. No one knows what will happen with the economy, but you should never spend money you can’t afford to lose. Any buy/sell/hold analysis is theoretical and not meant to serve as a specific recommendation.
Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s dive in.
Based on the supply of the NFT, there will be 55,555 boxes of VeeFriends Series 2 collectible card boxes, which is a playable card game and Gary Vaynerchuk has said in his Discord group that he plans to hold tournaments.
That’s much, much larger than the 1,000 boxes of original VeeFriends zerocool cards sold in March.
Sealed boxes are currently selling for around $200 and even non-rare cards are selling for $10, $15, $25, $55, and more:
And the rare pulls, like this 1/1 Patient Pig holo, while it is an unverified sale as of now, look like it sold for about $2,000:
There are rare 1/5 special insert cards for each Series 1 character (1,340 total), 1/1 Gary Vaynerchuk hand-signed cards for each of the 250 Series 2 characters, 1/1 foil spectacular cards, 6 each for the 250 characters (1,500 total), 500 “Rare” variation cards per character (125,000 total), 100 “Very Rare” variation cards per character (25,000) and 25 “Epic” variation cards per character (6,250).
Plus, there are hints at other rare inserts that the public may not have known about.
This brings the total count of rare cards to 159,340.
Based on the count of the boxes, 55,555 you could expect to pull 2.8 cards that fall into some sort of those rare variations.
We have 11 different variations of rarity across six categories for the VeeFriends compete and collect cards. I broke it down by % chance to pull a card by box. E.g. 250 cards divided by 55,555 boxes:
1/1 Autograph Cards — 0.4% chance of pulling per box
/5 Special Insert Cards — 2.4% chance of pulling per box
1/1 Foil Spectaculars (6 variations) — 2.7% chance of pulling per box, $2,000 highest reported sale so far (unverified)
Rare /500 Cards — 225% chance of pulling per box (expect 2 per box) — $555 highest reported sales so far (unverified and was one of the most popular characters, Very Very Very Very Lucky Black Cat)
Very Rare /100 Cards — 45% chance of pulling per box
Epic /25 Cards — 11.2% chance of pulling per box — $555 highest reported sale (unverified)
Now, there may be some variation on the box count, but this gives you an idea of just how hard the rare cards are to pull. The odds are much more difficult than Series 1 (more on why that’s important later).
So far, we haven’t seen any auto cards listed on eBay. Keep in mind, that the odds of getting an auto in the VeeFriends Series 1 boxes were about 26.8%.
In the sports card world, you can buy boxes of cards and hope to “pull” or get a rare one of a top player.
There are many kinds of boxes but it boils down to retail or hobby boxes.
Hobby boxes are more expensive because they have rarer hits and better odds of those hits:
Retail boxes still offer the chance of rare hits but at lower odds and are less expensive:
I tend to see VeeFriends Series 2 Compete and Collect as the retail box version and VeeFriends Series 1 as the hobby box version of Gary Vaynerchuk’s VeeFriends trading card ecosystem.
There are fewer zerocool Series 1 boxes with better odds at hits, and there are far more zerocool Series 2 boxes with ower odds, but rarer cards.
For this reason, I’m not going to re-sell my boxes. Instead, I’m going to rip them open and see what I get.
With boxes around $200 and odds at the rarest cards under 3%, holding them doesn’t seem like the right play. Yes, in 20 years there may be fewer of them, but anyone buying is going to know they have a less than 3% chance of hitting a card that might go for $1,000 or more.
I’d rather take the chances at getting a Series 2 auto, which I predict will outsell the majority of VeeFriends Series 1 trading cards.
More people are chasing these cards because there are more boxes. They’re the hardest cards to pull in the VeeFriends ecosystem.
They’re not the “rookie card” but they feature new character art in a way it will be recognized as it is merchandised.
It won’t outsell all VeeFriends Series 1 cards, but I think they will be highly coveted.
A lot more people will experience opening a VeeFriends Series 2 Collect and Compete card box and a lot more people will want the autographed cards.
For me, this isn’t a hold-a-sealed box play. It’s an open them, sell now (usually the market cools after supply floods, we’ve seen this over and over and over again.
Buying is also interesting to me at this time — I usually like to let supply hit (Series 1 cards cooled off), but in this case with supply so high, someone may not know a spectacular or special insert is less than a 3% chance pull.
We now have data for Series 1 cards, and can find arbitrage between characters.
It’s a more affordable entry point and with so many comps, some may slip through the cracks. I haven’t actively bought yet as I’m waiting for my boxes to arrive, but I’m closely watching the eBay data.
There are single packs of these cards being purchased on eBay, but I don’t recommend doing that.
You shouldn’t buy single packs of VeeFriends Compete and Collect trading cards because the seller likely hit the rare cards in other packs.
Each box is nearly guaranteed to at least have a rare card, and if I hit that card on the first pack, I could sell the other 9 knowing they have much less odds of having a hit.
This was the advice given to me in the sports card hobby and I think it applies here.
One more bit of advice, steer clear of cards listed on eBay signed by Gary that aren’t true autographs.
First and foremost, without a certificate of authenticity, you could be buying a fake.
Second, true autograph cards are the originals and are likely to be worth more.
Now, non-true autograph cards that have been signed after the fact have shown to sell for more money in some instances, but to me, it’s not worth the risk of buying a fake unless it is with a seller you trust or they have proof of signage (like a picture).
Gary V said he’s signing cards at the National, but that may increase the supply of auto cards on the secondary market. True originals are always the goal.
VeeFriends Series 2 Compete and Collect is a very smart retail product introduction that incorporates a gaming element to build the brand of the trading cards.
For that reason, I think we’ll see more sales volume on individual cards than Series 1, albeit for lower average prices.
However, I think the prices of the rarer cards will surprise everyone given that more people are “chasing” them because there are simply more boxes and lower odds.
I also think in the volume of sales, it's smart to be informed about rarity because some opportunities may present themselves.
Time will tell.
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Aug 12, 2022
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