August 23, 2021 - 4 min read
This article breaks down the sales volume of Apple Curio cards in July and August to show how much of the supply of Apples has been sold and is in the hands of new owners.
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Curio Cards is an NFT project dating back to May 2017 and is the “oldest known Art NFT project on Ethereum” according to Opensea.io. Card #1, the Apple, was the first card sold in the set, making it the first known piece of art to be sold on the Ethereum blockchain.
Because of this, I have been tracking each sale manually to provide people with good data regarding how much of that supply has changed hands in the past few months.
There are 624 Apples on Opensea owned by 284 individual wallets, up from 269 owners a week ago.
After Visa bought a CryptoPunk there's been a rush of new sales volume for Curio Cards.
Because the NFT is so old (yes, it pre-dates CryptoPunks) it didn't launch in the standard avatar 1/1 format we are used to seeing in new projects.
Instead, there are multiple copies of the Apple card (and other Curio Cards), which means that sale prices have been a bit more volatile as early buyers sell off their copies for a profit.
This means that 83 Apples, and the many purchased a mint for much less in 2017, are circulating where the buyer could sell today for an incredible profit even if s/he thinks the card will go higher.
If you bought something for .25 ETH and could sell for 3 or 4 ETH, wouldn't you take that deal?
But as more and more Apples are purchased at higher prices, new buyers won't be so willing to sell until it grows more, reducing the supply available for sale. You can read more on my initial analysis of the rise and fall of Curio Card Apple prices in detail here.
There's a lot of excitement around the Curio Cards project, and even some familiar faces are fans of "The Apples":
So I'm here to give you some alpha, as I've been tracking sales volume by hand. Remember, do not spend more than you can afford to lose, and do your own research. I do not want you to buy projects just because I like or own them (yes, I own 1 Apple).
That means 59.62% of the total Apples on Opensea have been sold for at least 1.13 ETH, with prices rising in the past month.
The most recent Apple sale was for 6.19 ETH.
And as of August 11th, there were 264 Apple owners, today there are 284, or 20 more.
Distribution is important for a project that has multiples of the same asset. If one person owns 50 copies, they can slowly sell, take their earnings and still have some left-over for a long-term bet.
At that pace, we are 52 days away from 100% of the active supply of Curio Card Apples on Opensea being sold to new owners.
This would likely mean new owners who purchased at around 4 ETH and would be holding for the longer term, which would reduce supply and likely drive prices up.
Conversely, if volume doesn't keep up, there are still many people who might get impatient and decide to undercut a listing to make a quick sale. Although, that number is getting smaller.
NFTs can teach us so much about the dynamics of supply and demand, which is why I thoroughly enjoy tracking Curio Cards and the Apple specifically because I have skin in the game.
The card reached a high of 11.75 ETH on August 6th and many are excited to see if the first art sold on Ethereum can push to new heights.
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